Yesterday saw our 5th consecutive winning day when my sole bet Testa Rossa won at Ayr, going off the 7/2 favourite after trading at the advised price of 5/1 or better in the morning. I managed to grab a bit of 11/2 and went in again at 5/1 around lunchtime. Despite the overnight favourite having been Indian Giver, on the day there was a bit of a plunge for Brian Ellison’s Grandest which went off the 11/4 favourite. I had a good look at that one as it was one of the few to have won a race, but its sole success had been at Southwell way back in 2013. I gather the horse has been gambled in the past and not delivered the goods, so despite it now having tumbled down the weights from a high of 82, when trained by John Gosden, to its current mark of 57, I couldn’t back it even with someone else’s money. It did manage to come second, its best run for a while, but a solid four and a half lengths behind my selection which won comfortably back at its preferred trip.
I find it hard to get excited about many of today’s races but am prepared to take a chance on Sylvester Kirk’s Harmony Bay in the 5.15pm at Salisbury. This filly won her maiden on her second start as a 2yo – in a modest class 6 event at Lingfield. Unfortunately the handicapper obviously must have been on the sherry, because he got it into his head that this must be a very decent animal, and bizarrely saddled the filly with a handicap mark of 77, despite her never having performed to that level. Her next outing was in a Class 2 handicap at Doncaster, where she finished an unsurprising 18th of 19, but I’m sure the owners had a good day out, and who can blame them, what else are you going to do with a filly on that mark? Since then she has steadily come down the rankings and is now on a much more workable rating of 60 so looks a more likely candidate to gain her second career success, particularly in view of an encouraging recent 4th place finish at Lingfield off a 3lb higher rating. Totesport, BetFred, William Hill and Ladbrokes all have 12/1 on offer but it may not last long once they have had their morning cappuccinos. Most of the other layers go 10/1 or 11/1, so you should still have no trouble getting on at a double figure price, but don’t hang about. So today’s recommendation is Harmony Bay (5.15pm Salisbury) 1pt EACH WAY at 10/1 or better.