Well, yesterday we got off to a good start, with two winners from two tips, and at brilliant odds into the bargain. What a pity that both winners were affected by a rule 4 deduction due to late withdrawals. Bletchley (Nottingham 2.00), which I thought was a stand out each way bet, duly obliged at the surprisingly good odds of 25/1, with a 10p Rule 4, so if you did as you were told and placed your wager with a layer offering a best odds guarantee, we got things off and running in fine style. The second selection held on well to win by a neck, so not as comfortably as I expected, but they all count. Sadly there was a 25p Rule 4 deduction due to the late withdrawal of Ifan so our 4/1 was effectively 3/1. No complaints from me.
I have two for you today, and the first of those is a slightly speculative punt that I might not have put on here if we hadn’t already got some profit in the bank. It runs in a rather trappy race for two-year olds, but there isn’t a huge array of stars taking part. You will hopefully come to realise that I am not averse to trying to find the least-bad horse in a poor race, for much as the racing press tend to look down their noses at some of the races put on for our entertainment and profit, I have always held the view that it can often be a lot harder to find the winner in premium races, where all of the horses have reasonable or exceptional ability, and there is profit to be made analysing the lower grade races.
There are a couple of previous winners in today’s first race which has less than eight runners so we wont be going each way, but have spotted a live outsider. The winners n the race haven’t beaten much, and La Casa Tarifa (Hamilton 2.00pm) is a big priced outsider. Trained by Mark Johnston, it has had only one previous outing, just over a week ago, when it ran very green at Carlisle. The filly will be sure to have come on for that race, and the fact that he has turned her out again quickly would suggest that the trainer is keen to get busy with her. She wasn’t an expensive purchase – nothing in the race was – and since I have lost count of the trainers who came back from the yearling sales full of praise for the physical characteristics of the yearlings her sire Casamento had produced, I am prepared to take a chance on her being better than the bare form so far. So the first selection today is La Casa Tarifa – 1pt WIN which I have spotted at 12/1 generally.
I know a bit more about today’s second selection, because it was a 54,000gns purchase at the breeze up sales a couple of years ago, and was sent to Amazing Racing’s trainer, Mark Loughnane. He thought very highly of this Lope De Vega colt, but it was very backward and didn’t race at two. It was placed early in its three year old career, but was still far from the finished article and was sent home to strengthen up. While it was on its holidays it was sold privately and sent to David O’Meara by its new connections, for whom it won at Hamilton, and has since won again as a four year old over a mile at Ripon. And that is where it is going again today. Treasury Notes (Ripon 3.50pm) is a course and distance winner who it was originally thought would eventually be a very nice animal indeed. O’Meara has taken a little while to settle into his new yard, but took some decent animals with him from his old place, and is coming into a good run of form. Treasury Notes will win more races and should go on to better things. Now rated 87, that is the main selection today – 2pts WIN. There has been a little bit of 4/1 available this morning but 7/2 is generally available and I suggest you grab it with both hands.