My first selection of the day leapt out at me from the first race I took a look at today. A 2yo maiden at Nottingham may not be everybody’s idea of an ideal starting point, but bear with me. Given the slavish devotion of newspaper analysts and tipsters to the top stables and richest owners, there is sometimes a bit of value to be had in applying a little bit more logic than they do to the task of finding a winner. And as I sipped my early morning coffee I was surprised to see my selection listed at the mouth-watering price of 20/1. Got your attention?
To be honest, the selection of Bletchley (Nottingham 2.00) is partly due to her trainer Ralph Beckett, a man who commands some respect even in a race where the likes of Gosden, Stoute and Botti are represented. A top class trainer, with what we might assume is a pretty decent filly, being owned by the mighty Qatar Racing. Yes, I know I am doing exactly what I criticised others for in the last paragraph, by paying homage to a top trainer and owner, but I am motivated by the lack of respect being shown to the horse by the betting market as things stand – it’s purely a question of VALUE.
Beckett has a very acceptable strike rate with two year olds, decent overall results at the track, and the stable is in good form. Added to which the horse is drawn high, so will have the stands rail advantage, and I can see no good reason for it being 20/1. All the focus seems to be on the Gosden and Stoute horses. Gosden’s Reeh is dropping down in class, after disappointing at Ascot, and Stoute’s Parlance, which was a very expensive yearling at 450,000gns, is half-sister to another very expensive filly that hasn’t yet seen a racecourse at three years of age, so that one may need the run.
I think they are worth taking on, so as a value bet, I recommend 1pt EACH WAY, at odds of 20/1 (widely available) or better if you can get it. I will be betting with one of the many bookmakers who offer a Best Odds Guarantee (BOG), so please do likewise – you never know, the price may drift if the market continues to expect Gosden and Stoute to win everything.
Little Choosey (Nottingham 5.00) is my second bet of the day. Again, an apprentice handicap won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but the horse is a course and distance winner, and remains on a winnable mark after winning off 4lb lower at Wolverhampton recently. The mare has a decent apprentice on board in Hollie Doyle, who won on her last time out, and it’s not a great race so I dont expect anything will surprise us. 1pt WIN on Little Choosey.
Good luck till next time!